Japan just recorded its earliest cherryblossom bloom in l,200 years

馬家碩

今年日本的櫻花開得比往年都要早，事實上，這是日本1200多年來最早的一次。專家指出，櫻花開得越來越早預示著更嚴重的氣候危機和生態(tài)危機。

Think of Japan in the spring， and the image that comesto mind is likely the country ' s famous cherry blossoms， al-so known as "sakura" - white and pink flowers， burstingacross cities and mountains， petals covering the ground.

The flowers， which experience a "peak bloom" that on-Iy lasts a few days， have been revered in Japan for morethan a thousand years. Crowds celebrate with viewing par-ties， flocking to the most popular locations to take photos

想起春天的日本，映入腦海的應該是日本著名的櫻花。白色和粉色的花朵盛開在城市和山間，地面上鋪滿了花瓣。

盛花期只有幾天的櫻花一千多年來在日本備受推崇。人們舉辦賞花會來慶祝，蜂擁到熱門景點拍照，在櫻花樹下野餐。and have picnics undemeath the branches.

But this year， cherry blossom season has come andgone in the blink of an eye， in one of the earliest blooms onrecord——and scientists wam it' s a symptom of the largerclimate crisis threatening ecosystems everywhere.

Yasuyuki Aono， a researcher at Osaka Prefecture Uni-versity， has gathered records from Kyoto back t0 812 ADfrom historical documents and diaries. In the central city ofKyoto， cherry blossoms peaked on March 26， the earliest inmore than l，200 years， Aono said.

And in the capital Tokyo， cherry blossoms reached fullbloom on March 22， the second-earliest date on record.

"As global temperatures warm， the last spring frostsare occurring earlier and flowering is occurring sooner，"said Dr. Lewis Ziska from Columbia University ' s Environ-mental Health Sciences.

The peak bloom dates shift every year， depending onnumerous factors including weather and rainfall， but haveshown a general trend of moving earlier and earlier. InKyoto， the peak date hovered around mid-April forcenturies， according to Aono ' s data， but began moving intoearly April during the 1800s. The date has only dipped intolate March a handful of times in recorded history.

"Sakura blooms are very temperature sensitive，" saidAono. "Flowering and full bloom could be earlier or laterdepending on the temperature alone，" he said. "The temper-ature was low in the 1820s， but it has risen by about 3.5 de-grees Celsius to this day."

This year' s seasons in particular influenced the blos-som dates， he added. The winter was very cold， but thespring came fast and unusually warm， so "the buds are com-pletely awake after enough rest".

Their early bloom， however， is just the tip of the ice-berg of a worldwide phenomenon that could destabilize nat-ural systems and countries' economies， said Amos Tai， as-sistant professor of earth science at the Chinese Universityof Hong Kong.

但是今年，櫻花季眨眼之間來了又去，花期前所未有的早。科學家警告說，這預示著更大規(guī)模威脅各地生態(tài)系統(tǒng)的氣候危機即將到來。

大阪府立大學的研究員青野靖之收集了京都從公元812年至今的歷史文獻和日志。青野指出，京都市中心的櫻花在3月26日達到全盛，這是1200多年來最早的一次。

在日本首都東京，櫻花在3月22日達到了全盛，這是有記錄以來第二早的盛花期。

哥倫比亞大學環(huán)境健康科學系的路易斯·齊思卡博士說：“隨著全球氣溫變暖，春天最后一次霜凍時間提前，花開得也更早了。”

櫻花花期每年都不同，取決于天氣、雨水等諸多因素，但是總體趨勢是越來越早。根據(jù)青野的數(shù)據(jù)，京都過去幾百年的盛花期都是在四月中旬，但是19世紀開始變成四月初。根據(jù)記載，歷史上只有幾次在三月末進入盛花期。

青野說：“櫻花對氣溫十分敏感。光是氣溫變化就可以提早或推遲花期。19世紀20年代氣溫較低，但自那以后氣溫已經(jīng)上升了約3.5攝氏度。”

他補充道，今年的春季對花期影響尤其大。冬天非常寒冷，但是春天很快就來了，而且異常溫暖，因此“花骨朵在足夠的休息后完全覺醒了”。

香港中文大學地球科學系的助理教授阿摩司·塔伊說，櫻花早開只是一個世界級現(xiàn)象的冰山一角。這一現(xiàn)象將會動搖自然系統(tǒng)，危害國家經(jīng)濟。

There are two sources of increased heat， which is themain factor making the flowers bloom earlier： urbanizationand climate change. With increased urbanization， cities tendto get warmer than the surrounding rural area， in what iscalled the heat island effect. But a bigger reason is climatechange， which has caused rising temperatures across the re-gion and the world.

And these earlier dates aren ' t just a matter of touristsscrambling to catch peak bloom before the petals all fall -it could have a lasting impact on entire ecosystems， andthreaten the survival of many species.

Different plants and insects may respond to the rise inheat at different paces， throwing their life cycles out ofsync. Whereas they once timed their growth simultaneouslyeach spring， now flowers may bloom before insects areready， and vice versa—— meaning "the insects may not findenough food to eat from the plants， and the plants don' thave enough pollinators （to reproduce），" Tai said.

"Ecosystems are not accustomed to these kinds oflarge fluctuations， it causes them a lot of stress，" he said."Productivity may be reduced， and ecosystems may evencollapse in the future. "

This year' s change in flowering dates isn ' t limited tojust Japan; the cherry blossoms that adom the Tidal Basinin Washington， DC， have also bloomed early. According tothe National Park Service， the peak bloom date of theWashington cherry blossoms has advanced forward bynearly a week from April Sth to March 31.

And the effects of climate change aren't just limited tocherry blossoms. The same phenomenon is already happen-ing to many crops and economically valuable plants， Taisaid——posing big problems for food security and farmers 'livelihoods. Food supplies in some of the most vulnerableregions in the world are being directly affected by droughts，crop failures and locust swarms.

"Agriculture now is more like a gamble， because cli-mate change is randomizing the things happening in ourecological systems. " Tai added.

導致櫻花早開的主要因素是來自城市化和氣候變化兩大源頭的高溫。隨著城市化水平的提高，城市的溫度通常比周邊鄉(xiāng)村地區(qū)更高，這就是所謂的熱島效應。但是更大的原因是導致該地區(qū)和全球氣溫升高的氣候變化。

櫻花提早盛開不止讓游客難以在花謝之前一睹盛景，而且還會對整個生態(tài)系統(tǒng)產(chǎn)生持久的影響，并威脅到許多物種的生存。

不同的植物和昆蟲可能以不同的節(jié)奏來應對溫度的升高，導致它們的生命周期不再同步。過去它們每年春季的成長是同步的，而現(xiàn)在也許昆蟲還未準備好，花就開了，反之亦然。塔伊說，這意味著“昆蟲可能無法從植物獲取足夠的食物，而植物可能沒有足夠的傳粉昆蟲（來繁殖后代）”。

塔伊表示：“生態(tài)系統(tǒng)不習慣這種大起大落，會產(chǎn)生很大壓力。生產(chǎn)力可能會降低，未來生態(tài)系統(tǒng)甚至可能崩潰。”

今年櫻花花期的變化不只局限于日本，華盛頓特區(qū)潮汐湖畔的櫻花也早早地開了。據(jù)美國國家公園管理局報告，華盛頓櫻花的盛花期比往年提早了近一周，從4月5日提前到了3月31日。

此外，氣候變化的影響也不只局限于櫻花。塔伊指出，同樣的現(xiàn)象也已經(jīng)發(fā)生在許多農(nóng)作物和經(jīng)濟作物上，這給糧食安全和農(nóng)民生計造成了難題。世界上食物供應最困難的一些地區(qū)正直接受到干旱、農(nóng)作物歉收和蝗災的影響。