考慮道德風險的突發事件政府治理路徑研究

摘 要：道德風險和瞞報行為對突發事件應對將產生不利影響，探究政府治理路徑對應對突發事件具有重要意義。基于道德風險視角，利用演化博弈理論，在綜合考慮企業道德風險、政府獎勵、政府懲罰、政府監督等多個影響政府治理的因素基礎上，構建了政府突發事件治理演化博弈模型，探究了突發事件應對過程中政府治理路徑的演變情況。研究發現：政府治理突發事件行為的演化與其初始構建的支付矩陣密切相關，也與支付矩陣的初始參數選擇有關。在一定范圍內，增大對企業瞞報行為的處罰、降低政府強監管成本、減少企業道德風險可以有效促使系統的最終策略穩定于（強監管，實報）狀態。研究結論可為政府在突發事件治理過程中形成聯動治理局面提供一定參考和建議。

關鍵詞：突發事件；治理路徑；道德風險；演化博弈；監管

中圖分類號：F206 文獻標志碼：A" " " "文章編號：1005-9679（2024）01-0-07

A Study on the Path of Government Governance of Emergencies Considering Moral Hazard

LIU Jusheng1 LI Chaoran2 WANG Yuan1

（1. School of Economics and Management， Shanghai University of Political Science and Law， Shanghai 201701， China； 2. School of Economics and Management， Shanghai University of Sport， Shanghai 200438， China）

Abstract：The concealment and moral hazard have a negative effect on the response to major emergencies. To explore the evolution of governance paths in the government in the situation of emergency response，this paper used the evolutionary game theory to construct a model that comprehensively considers the moral hazard of enterprise，government reward，government punishment，government supervision，and other factors basing on the perspective of moral hazard firstly. Secondly，through the theoretical analysis and numerical simulation of the model，it explored the evolution of the governance paths of governments and enterprises in response to emergencies. This study found that the evolution of the governance behavior of the government is closely related to its initial construction of the payment matrix and to the initial choice of parameters of the payment matrix. Besides，increasing penalties for concealment behavior by enterprises，reducing the cost of regulation by the government，and reducing the moral hazard of enterprise can drive the final strategy of the system to strong regulation and factual reporting state effectively. The study aims to provide some reference and suggestions to the government in the process of forming a linked governance situation in the management of emergencies.

Key words： emergencies；governance path；moral hazard；evolutionary game；regulation

突發事件的發生，不僅給國家和人民群眾帶來了一定創傷和損失，也對基層政府的治理能力和治理水平提出了嚴格考驗。為了有效應對和治理突發事件，必須構建完善治理體系，提升治理水平和治理能力，故政府治理行為及政府決策逐步成為了廣大學者熱議的重要話題。突發事件的發生，不僅需要政府迅速進行決策以及調動廣大社會力量廣泛開展救援，也需要政府及時公開事故信息，澄清事故原因。此時，高效務實的政府治理機制和上下聯動的治理局面對應對突發事件具有重要作用。……