廣東海洋經(jīng)濟高質(zhì)量發(fā)展指標體系構建及實證分析

程曼曼 陳偉 楊蕊

摘要：21世紀是海洋的世紀，廣東海洋經(jīng)濟連續(xù)多年位居第一，隨著海洋強國強省等重大戰(zhàn)略的實施，廣東海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展面臨著新的機遇與挑戰(zhàn)。鑒于目前很少有學者對廣東海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展質(zhì)量構建評價指標體系進行分析，并基于原有數(shù)據(jù)對最近幾年進行預測，以開展深層次的研究來對廣東海洋經(jīng)濟高質(zhì)量發(fā)展提出建議。因此文章根據(jù)2007—2016年相關統(tǒng)計數(shù)據(jù)，建立海洋經(jīng)濟發(fā)展質(zhì)量評價指標體系，通過熵權法計算指標權重與最后的綜合得分，并通過指數(shù)平滑法預測未來3年各一級指標以及綜合得分的變化情況，以進行更加全面的分析。針對產(chǎn)業(yè)結構分配不合理、海洋科技創(chuàng)新支撐能力不足、生態(tài)環(huán)境保護力度有待加強等問題，提出將新發(fā)展理念貫穿海洋經(jīng)濟高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的全過程、提高科技創(chuàng)新力、加大對生態(tài)環(huán)境的保護力度等建議。

關鍵詞：廣東;指標體系;海洋經(jīng)濟;高質(zhì)量發(fā)展;熵權法;指數(shù)平滑法

中圖分類號：F2;P74文獻標志碼：A文章編號：1005-9857（2021）11-0027-07

Construction and Empirical Analysis of High Quality Development Index System of Guangdong Marine Economy CHENG Manman，CHEN Wei，YANG Rui （Guangdong Ocean University，Zhanjiang 524088，China）

Abstract：Guangdong's marine economy has been ranked the first place for many years in China， with the implementation of major strategies such as becolming a maritime power and strengthening provinces， Guangdong's marine economic development is facing new opportunities and challenges. In view of the fact that few scholars had analyzed the establishmert of an evaluation index system for the quality of Guangdong's marine economic development， and few suggestions for the high-quality development of Guangdong's marine economy were carried out by predictions for recent years from in-depth research on the original data. Therefore， the paper established amarine economic development quality evaluation in-dex system based on the relevant statistical data frolm 2007 to 2016， calculated the index weight and the final comprehensive score through the entropy weight method， and predicted the changes in the first-level indicators and comprehensive scores in the next 3 years through the exponential smoothing method for a more comprehensive analysis. The results showed that the irrational distribution of the industrial structure needed to be optimized， the supporting capacity of marine scientific and technological innovation was insufficient， and the efforts to protect the ecological environment needed to be strengthened. Based on the research conclusions， suggestions were put forward that the new development concept should be put forward through the whole process of the high-quality development of the marine economy， the sci-entific and technological innovation ability should bee improved， and the protection of ecological environ-ment should be strengthened.

Keywords：Guangdong，Index system，Marine economy，High-quality development，Entropy method，Exponential smoothing method

0引言

聯(lián)合國曾預言21世紀是海洋的世紀，這意味著人類要全面認知海洋、開發(fā)利用海洋以及保護管理海洋。我國擁有300萬km2余的主張管轄海域，在海洋資源方面有很大的優(yōu)勢，海洋是高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略要地[1]，新時代發(fā)展藍色海洋經(jīng)濟具有很好的前景。2013年習近平總書記在中共中央政治局第八次集體學習時強調(diào)進一步關心海洋、認識海洋、經(jīng)略海洋，在致2019中國海洋經(jīng)濟博覽會的賀信中又再一次深刻闡述了海洋的重要性，指出海洋孕育了生命、聯(lián)通了世界、促進了發(fā)展，海洋是高質(zhì)量發(fā)展的戰(zhàn)略要地，對人類社會生存和發(fā)展具有重要意義。……